Guess what. If you piss off enough people, you eventually get pissed on.

Payback Time
Trump primaried Senator Cornyn in Texas and trashed Senators Thune, Tillis, and Murkowski. Now he and the Secretary of War (aptly named) need their help.
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I am pleased to report the Pentagon chief struggles to shore up support for Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion military budget.
Hegseth Needs Support of Senators He Brushed Off
The Wall Street Journal reports Hegseth Brushed Off Congress for Months. Now He Needs Them for His Budget.
Striding through the halls of Congress with his entourage in tow, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth almost missed Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska), dressed inconspicuously in a brown shirt and sneakers, before doubling back to talk.
Murkowski, who voted last year against confirming Hegseth, is one of several Republicans the administration now needs to pass a part of its unprecedented $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget using an expedited process called budget reconciliation. The tactic allows passage of some legislation on a simple-majority vote, making it easier for Republicans to deliver a win for President Trump by bypassing Democrats in the Senate, where 60 votes are required to advance most legislation.
So far, his pitch is falling flat.
“I do not see reconciliation as our tool,” Murkowski said after her brief conversation with Hegseth.
“We need to be legislating,” she added, referring to the Senate. “We need to be appropriating. Reconciliation is not that. Reconciliation is a total bypass.”
Hegseth has spent much of his tenure as Pentagon chief largely snubbing Congress. His appearances before committees on Capitol Hill often turn contentious, frustrating both Republicans and Democrats who say they want more answers on the Iran war, the military’s drug-boat strikes and defense spending. Now, finding himself in need of their help, he has visited Capitol Hill several times in recent days to huddle privately with Republicans to shore up support for Trump’s spending plan.
Rep. August Pfluger (R., Texas), who was among the conservatives who met with Hegseth behind closed doors, confirmed the Pentagon chief was “pushing very hard for us in Congress to make that investment” into the military.
While Pfluger and many other Republicans support increased military spending, some aren’t fully persuaded by the Pentagon’s plan and remain frustrated over a long list of issues ranging from the Iran war to the postponement of the signing of a bipartisan housing bill. Also irking several Republicans are the Pentagon’s recent threats to reduce troop levels in Europe and Hegseth’s firing of decorated general officers.
Rep. Don Bacon (R., Neb.), who was at the meeting, said that Hegseth was “sharp” and laid out a “strong case” for the proposed budget. But while Bacon wants to raise defense spending, he said that Hegseth also needed to address other lawmaker concerns, such as the Pentagon’s recent announcement that it was canceling the deployment of an armored brigade to Poland.
If Hegseth is “weak on NATO, I’ll not support his efforts,” Bacon said. “This will have to be a two-way street.”
The sheer size of Trump’s proposed budget is raising eyebrows. The $1.5 trillion request for the 2027 budget year would be the largest dollar amount in modern history.
With Hegseth’s requests to meet one-on-one with lawmakers coming during a busy time on Capitol Hill, some lawmakers have declined.
Murkowski said she had turned down a request to meet with Hegseth for 20 minutes on Wednesday because it would have conflicted with Trump’s lunch with Republicans at the same time. She expects to speak with a Pentagon official on Thursday, she said.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Penn.), who said Hegseth has asked to meet with him, said he needed more details before swinging behind the reconciliation approach. “They haven’t described what their goal is, where the pay-fors are going to come from,” he said. “Those are important questions to answer.”
In addition to Murkowski, other Republicans who said they oppose reconciliation include Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who chairs the Senate Defense Appropriations subcommittee.
Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas), who was defeated by a Trump-backed primary challenger in May, said he would have to see the details of any reconciliation bill first.
Trump can afford at most three defections. Then vice-president Vance can cast the tiebreaker vote.
Why Cornyn Matters So Much
- Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell have all publicly ruled out reconciliation or are strongly opposed. That already eats up 3 likely defections/absences.
- VP Vance tiebreaker gives them a path to 50 yes votes, but every additional “no” or “present” hurts badly.
- If Cornyn joins Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell it’s all over.
As a lame duck (Cornyn lost his May 2026 primary to Trump-backed Ken Paxton and is leaving at the end of this term), Cornyn has less to lose politically from bucking leadership or the White House.
His vote could switch the math from possible to impossible. And possible assumes there are no other no votes.
Bottom-Line Math Scenario
| Scenario | Likely GOP Yes Votes (w/ McConnell out) | Outcome with Vance Tiebreaker |
|---|---|---|
| Cornyn Yes + minimal other defections | 50–51 | Passes narrowly |
| Cornyn No (joins Collins + Murkowski) | 48–49 | Fails |
| Cornyn Yes but 3+ other no’s | 49 or less | Fails or needs last-minute deals |
Hegseth and the White House know this, which is why outreach is happening. When the Senate returns in mid-July, expect heavy pressure on Cornyn specifically. If he signals openness, it changes the game; if he stays cautious, the appropriators’ preference for regular order will almost certainly win.
Ultimate Irony
The ultimate irony is if Ken Paxton blows up and loses to James Talarico.
The Kalshi betting odds are currently 60% for Paxton. I think it’s more like 55% Paxton, if held today. But I expect the odds to narrow.
Republicans are going to have to spend hundreds on millions of dollars defending a seat Cornyn would have won easily. And Cornyn voted with Trump well over 95 percent of the time.
But Trump demands full loyalty. 95 percent isn’t enough.
Trump speaks out often against Sue Collins. He will get is wish. Collins is highly likely to lose to a weak Democrat Graham Platner.
Senator Tillis, who resigned under pressure by Trump, is guaranteed gone. Trump will be rewarded with a Democrat replacement, Roy Cooper.
So Trump will remove Senators who voted with him 90 percent of the time or more with Senators who will vote with him 30 percent or less.
As I have stated, Trump cares more about loyalty than winning.
Trump will get pissed on in the midterms as a result.
If you piss off enough people, you eventually get pissed on.
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Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock












