Senator Graham died of a heart attack. There are tears, cheers, and repercussions.

Lindsey Graham, Republican Senator and Staunch Trump Ally, Dies at 71

The New York Times reports Lindsey Graham, Republican Senator and Staunch Trump Ally, Dies at 71

He died from “a brief and sudden illness,” his office said. Over more than two decades in the Senate, he consistently pushed for the use of U.S. military power overseas.

Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina and a onetime opponent turned stalwart ally of President Trump who was a forceful advocate for an interventionist U.S. foreign policy, died on Saturday evening. He was 71.

He died from “a brief and sudden illness,” his office said in a statement early Sunday. No further details were provided. After recently returning from a trip to Ukraine, Mr. Graham had been scheduled to appear on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday morning.

Mr. Trump offered his condolences on social media early Sunday, calling Mr. Graham “one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known.”

“He was always working, and was a true American Patriot,” Mr. Trump added. “Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!”

Trump then and Now

There is no need for me to state my opinion of Graham. I will let Trump do so.

President Trump 2019

“Lindsey Graham would like to stay in the Middle East for the next thousand years with thousands of soldiers fighting other people’s wars. I want to get out of the Middle East…I won an election based on that.”

Graham on Trump

Trump Glad that Robert Mueller Died

Sarcasm Missed

More Graham on Trump

“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed… and we will deserve it”

In 2016, Lindsey Graham saw the future perfectly. He just spent the rest of his career ensuring it happened anyway. A legacy defined by the very thing he once warned us about.

Graham Correctly Understood Trump

Lindsey Graham Says “Trump Is a Jackass”

Caught on Tape

CAUGHT ON TAPE: A video of Trump is going viral from 2016 when he publicly exposed Graham’s phone number to get back at him for calling him a “jackass.” Graham was forced to change his number.

Don’t Celebrate His Death

Not only death abroad, but the death of Robert Mueller.

An Understandable Reaction

Tucker Chimes In

Got Popcorn?

There is no need to say anything bad about Graham. Both Graham and Trump made perfectly valid claims on each other.

Factor in Tucker, and enjoy the infighting.

Political Realities

The political reality is the Senate is down a key supporter of the SAVE Act and nuking the Filibuster.

Unfortunately, that’s temporary.

South Carolina has Rules on Special Elections that allow the Governor to make a temporary appointment.

SECTION 7-19-20. Filling vacancies in office of United States Senator.

In case of a vacancy in the office of United States Senator from death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor may fill the place by appointment which shall be for the period of time intervening between the date of such appointment and January third following the next succeeding general election. But in the event any such vacancy shall occur less than one hundred days prior to any general election, the appointment shall be for the period of time intervening between the date of such appointment and January third following the second general election next succeeding. The Governor shall within five days after any such appointment order an election to be held in connection with and at the time of the general election immediately preceding the expiration date of such appointment if at the expiration of such appointment an unexpired term shall remain.

Quick Special Election Coming Up

The Washington Post comments on the Special Election.

A special election will take place quickly

Graham won the Republican Senate primary last month and was the heavy favorite to win November’s general election in conservative South Carolina. Now the party must find a new candidate through a special election, according to state law.

The filing period will open the second Tuesday after Graham’s death, which falls on July 21. Candidates will then have one week, through July 28, to declare their interest in filling his seat. A special primary will take place two weeks later, on Aug. 11. If no candidate wins outright, a runoff will take place two weeks after that, on Aug. 25.

It is likely to be highly competitive

Graham held his Senate seat for more than two decades, essentially locking out a generation of ambitious South Carolina politicians. There could be a scramble among Republicans for what has the potential to become a lifetime position in a deep-red state.

South Carolina has six sitting GOP House members, including Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, who both gave up their seats to run unsuccessfully for governor this year. A person familiar with Mace’s thinking confirmed that she is strongly considering running for Senate.

South Carolina’s crowded gubernatorial primary also included Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Trump’s initial pick, who lost in a runoff. Graham faced a primary challenge from the right in business owner Mark Lynch, who received nearly 29 percent of the vote in June.

In the end, Trump may have the decisive voice in Graham’s replacement, given the outsize weight his endorsement carries in the Republican Party. Trump said Sunday morning on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that there is “somebody that I think would be great” to fill Graham’s seat, though he declined to share the name because it was “too soon.” He added, “I don’t want to even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good.”

Senate Republicans Will Miss Graham’s Vote

When the Senate returns this week from recess, Republicans will be down two members. In addition to Graham, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) has been hospitalized since last month, with little clarity about his condition.

Now the GOP will have only the barest majority to pursue its agenda, including the confirmation of Trump’s controversial nominee for attorney general, Todd Blanche, who is scheduled for a hearing on Wednesday. Despite holding a 53-47 edge, the GOP has increasingly struggled to keep its caucus together on key votes due to ideological clashes between Trump and more moderate Republicans.

There is not much time for them to act. The Senate plans to work for the next four weeks, then take off for another month, returning in mid-September.

Effective Majority Is 51-47

With McConnell hospitalized and Graham gone, the current effective Senate Republican majority is down to 51-47.

This will make it much harder to pass any legislation. Republicans can afford only a single dissent until Graham is replaced.

But even after Graham is replaced, McConnell has voted with Trump far more often than not, although they do not see eye-to-eye on the filibuster or the SAVE Act.

Political Realities

The Polymarket SAVE Act odds of passage remain 8 percent.

The odds of passing another reconciliation bill this year are only 48 percent.

If a reconciliation bill is not passed by the end of September, there will not be another try. The Senate will be on recess for most of October in advance of the midterm elections.

Thus, the McConnell and Graham setup makes legislation of any kind much more difficult.

Moreover, foolish efforts by Republicans to attach the SAVE Act to military spending bill might kill it.

Can Vance Overrule the Parliamentarian to Force SAVE Act Passage?

Yesterday, I asked Can Vance Overrule the Parliamentarian to Force SAVE Act Passage?

Vance can overrule the Parliamentarian. However, the answer to the question as phrased is no.

The answer is no. The absence of Graham complicates matters further.

There is a lot of meaningless chatter on X about Ted Cruz replacing McConnell on the Senate Rules Committee. It’s meaningless.

The votes are still not there. There’s actually one less vote to kill the filibuster, and that’s what’s needed to pass the SAVE Act.

Click the above link for the vote counts on SAVE and ending the filibuster.

Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock