In the event McConnell is no longer a Senator, what happens?

Kentucky Law

• Kentucky law (changed in 2024) requires a special election to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy—no temporary gubernatorial appointment is allowed. Kentucky is one of only five states with this rule.
• The governor (currently Democrat Andy Beshear) must call the special election.
• Timeline: The special election must occur no sooner than 60 days and no later than 90 days after the vacancy occurs.
• “If a vacancy occurs less than three (3) months before the regular election in any year in which any regular election is held in this state, and if a regular election is scheduled in the succeeding year, the vacancy shall be filled by appointment under subsection (1) of this section, and the unexpired term shall be filled at the regular election in the succeeding year.”

The third bullet point above is confusing. The “succeeding year” language refers to when the elected person actually takes office.

This legislation was passed over Beshear’s veto specifically to handle McConnell. Republicans did not want Beshear picking a Democrat replacement Senator.

The national election is Tuesday, November 3.

Kentucky Special Election Breakdown

Vacancy Date	Time Before Nov 3 Election	Rule That Applies
Before August 3	More than 3 months	Normal special election (60–90 day window)
On/after August 3	Less than 3 months	Temporary gubernatorial appointment until winner of Nov 2026 election fills the seat

Beshear Would Be in No Rush

Here are the calendar dates of concern from Monday, July 20, 2026

Days from July 20	Date
60 days	September 18, 2026 (Friday)
75 days	October 3, 2026 (Saturday)
90 days	October 18, 2026 (Sunday)

Kentucky elections are generally on Tuesday. If Beshear picked a Tuesday, the earliest date would be Tuesday, September 22, assuming McConnell stepped aside on July 20. Adjust accordingly.

In practice, I think Beshear would opt for Tuesday, October 6 if McConnell was out soon.

Note that the Senate is scheduled for a recess from October 5 through November 6, 2026 for the election.

After October 5, a special election appointee would be in the election recess.

Trump could call Congress back for a Special Election. This power is rarely used. The last time a president called a special session was Harry Truman in 1948.

Save Act Implications

Superficial. Even with an immediate McConnell replacement today, there are not enough votes.

It’s not a matter of finding 50 straight up, but rather finding 50 votes to kill the filibuster,

From a practical standpoint, we are already too close to the election to have a chance to implement the SAVE Act.

Other Legislation

It’s possible McConnell’s vote is needed for some other purpose.

Assuming Beshear would delay replacement until the Senate is in recess, all McConnell needs to do is hang on until July 23 for my middle-of-the-road ~75 days to kill any further legislation.

Trump could conceivably call Congress back, but no one in Congress would be pleased about that.

Also, there are 36 House Republicans who are not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms compared to 22 House Democrats.

The math means it would be a risky move by Trump to call a special session.

I suspect many retiring and outed Republican House members would not show up. Democrats might show up for spite. So might Thomas Massie.

In the Event of Something Happening to Me

It is starting to get iffy about any major legislation passing.

Reconciliation Bill Odds

For discussion, please see The Odds of Congress Passing Another Reconciliation Bill Are Sinking Fast

Following Trump’s laughable speech to the nation on election security, odds fell from 52 percent to 25 percent.

It’s still doable, but the House Speaker foolishly tied in the SAVE Act, creating issues that will cause delays.

Article posted with permission from Mish Shedlock